Saratoga Picks & Analysis 7.27.22

We will pick up where we left off to end the weekend and focus on Saratoga Race Course this week as we get some nice graded stakes races every day. A small loss last weekend as we go down -1.25 units and will look to make a nice come back on this Wednesday.


July 27, 2022. 8:33am CST


Saratoga Race 2
  • Purse - $32,000

  • Distance - 6 furlongs

  • Track - Dirt/Fast

Looking at the #1 horse, we can expect a good run from the favorite here today as they are getting a step down in class. What concerns me however is the new jockey on board as well as the inconsistency in the speed figures that this horse has produced. Still trying to figure out what distance this horse likes best is also another issue here so with too many red flags, we are staying off of the #1 horse. We can expect the #3 horse to shoot out of the gate and get to the front early, however, as seen from this horses previous races, it does not maintain that speed for long and will most likely die down near the final couple of furlongs as it typically has in the past. The #4 looks very solid with Gomez back on after riding this horse in the last race, but the issue here is the step up in class that this horse will be doing. This horse has ran well at Tampa Bay Downs, however, Belmont and Saratoga are far and away a lot tougher competition than what this horse has seen down south. We will be targeting the #6 horse here which has shown that she loves to run this distance as she has down so 11 times and won twice, placed three times, and shown for three more. This horse will be getting back to a fast track after failing to be on one in its last four starts so we expect to see a nice ride here today by Carmouche.

Pick - WIN #6 (Big Tony's Girl)

Saratoga Race 4
  • Purse - $200,000

  • Distance - 6 furlongs

  • Track - Dirt/Fast

With only four horses to choose from in this race, there are really only two that stick out just as they did over the weekend when we had Clairiere as a winner. We will be looking at the #2 horse to repeat as a winner here again. There is just too much consistency with this horse compared to the others as far as speed, workouts, and jockey experience. Winning five of its last six races where the only loss came in the $1M sprint back in November, Bella Sofia will look for another win here as this horse has run incredible workouts and shows consistently that she can kick it in at the right time down the stretch. With a very impressive 59:20 5F workout just 11 days ago, the #2 horse looks primed for another victory at a very deserved price here today. Expect the #1 to be on its tail just as it has been in previous races as we try to cash in the exacta.

Pick - EXACTA #2/#1 (Bella Sofia/Frank's Rockette

Saratoga Race 5
  • Purse - $115,000

  • Distance - 1 1/2 mile

  • Track - Turf/Firm

When looking at this race, we see that #7 is the morning favorite and rightfully so with some very nice finishes in its six lifetime races. What is concerning for me about this horse is the types of races this horse has run and still trying to figure out what distance it likes. With the #6 coming from over seas, it is very difficult for me to trust a horse making its first start here in the states after that journey on top of moving up in class for this race. The horse that I believe possesses the best value is the #3 horse here as it has been moving up in class during its last few races and has just been a bit short, but has shown improving speed. If Irad Ortiz Jr. can get this horse in a good spot to stalk coming around the far turn, then this horse has the speed to close down the stretch. We will be looking for a decent payout here for a win if this horse can run the right race.

Pick - WIN #3 (Jarreau)

Saratoga Race 7
  • Purse - $72,000

  • Distance - 1 1/16 mile

  • Track - Turf/Firm

This is another one of those races where we will be targeting the horse that has been able to show the most consistency as of late. The #1 is the morning line favorite here, but not the one we will be going with. This filly has not been able to produce a win yet this year nor has she been able to at this distance. She does get a bit of an uplift with Irad on board, but I don't see that as being enough with all the speed inconsistency that we have seen. The #3 could be a player as well since getting claimed it has shown signs of promise especially with Jose Ortiz on the ride last race by coming in fifth in a packed field at the finish. This horse could be a surprise winner, but our focus is on one of the others in this race. As the current 2/1 morning price on this horse, we will be looking at the #5 horse here as this filly consistently closes with speed and loves to be in the front. This horse has the potential to be the favorite by the time this race goes off as it has shown some impressive workouts as of late and has run this distance four times while winning two of those. The only concern with this horse is the level of competition that it has faced has not been very impressive which may be an issue, but does not look to be enough of one with this small field.

Pick - WIN #5 (Mirth 'n Merriment)

Saratoga Race 9
  • Purse - $125,000

  • Distance - 1 mile

  • Track - Turf/Firm

This is another race where we get a nice field of horses and a potential semi longshot as a winner. The #1 horse makes sense being the favorite with the type of speed that it has shown and getting Flavien Prat back on board will help this horse as well. However, I think there is value elsewhere as we look at the #7 which has shown a consistent speed over its last four races in how it closes. Getting first in two of its last four with the same jockey Eric Cancel riding this horse here today, this could be a very nice price by the time this race goes off to get some great value on a horse that can squeeze out a win.

Pick - WIN #7 (Evvie Jets)
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