NBA Betting Strategy 11.5.22

Updated: Nov 6

As the major focus is on college football today, we still have a couple of spots that we will be testing out our NBA betting strategy where we fade the market over reaction to a players injury news. So far this season we are 5-4-1 in this strategy with a small winning percentage. Using this strategy, our goal is to win above 60% with more data before we can consider this a successful strategy long term.

Published on November 5, 2022. 1:10pm CST

Orlando Magic vs. Sacramento Kings

At the time that De'Aaron Fox was questionable for tonight's game, the line was sitting at Kings -3.5. De'Aaron Fox announced IN - line moves to Kings -4

  • Pick - Magic +4

  • Result - WIN

  • Kings win 126 - 123 and the Magic cover both lines. Market over reaction was in effect

Atlanta Hawks vs. New Orleans Pelicans

At the time that Trae Young was questionable for tonight's game, the line was sitting at Hawks -2. Trae Young announced IN - line moves to Hawks -2

  • Pick - Pelicans +2

  • Result - WIN

  • Hawks beat the Pelicans 124 - 121 and cover both numbers. No sign of market over reaction for this game as it was close.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

At the time there was no news of Giannis Antetokounmpo for tonight's game, the line was sitting at Bucks -6.5. Giannis Antetokounmpo announced OUT - line moves to Bucks -5

  • Pick - Bucks -5

  • Result - WIN

  • Bucks beat the Thunder 108 - 94 and cover both the market over reaction and the original number. Classic case of market over reaction for this game.

The results for today's game show another positive result where we go 2-1. Following this strategy where we hone in on key players and their injury status has been successful thus far as the market over reacts. This betting strategy will continue to be tracked for the season and will not be official plays unless other wise stated. The goal is again to have a hit rate of at least 60% before we end up using the strategy for our personal records.

Season Record: 7 - 5 - 1

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