NBA Betting Strategy 11.4.22

Updated: Nov 4

Following our new NBA betting strategy, we have a large slate of NBA games tonight where we get to test out our strategy on quite a few games. On Wednesday, we ended 2-3-1 out of the 6 games that we used the betting strategy on. In today's games, we get a four pack of games with some very interesting line movement due to player injuries. Again, we are going against the market move in all of these plays to record our findings which are not going to be a part of our record as this strategy is still being tested out.

Published November 4, 2022. 5:49pm CST

 
Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat

At the time that Bam Adebayo was questionable for tonight's game, the line was sitting at Heat -3.5. Bam Adebayo announced IN - line moves to Heat -4.5

  • Pick - Pacers +4.5

  • Result - WIN

  • Pacers win outright as underdogs 101 - 99. Market over reaction in effect.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks

At the time that Joel Embiid was questionable for tonight's game, the line was sitting at 76ers -2.5. Joel Embiid announced OUT - line moves to 76ers -1.5

  • Pick - 76ers -1.5

  • Result - LOSS

  • Knicks win outright as underdogs 106 - 104. Line movement made no difference.

Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

At the time that Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland were questionable for tonight's game, the line was sitting at Cavaliers -6. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland announced OUT - line moves to Cavaliers -3.5

  • Pick - Cavaliers -3.5

  • Result - WIN

  • Cavaliers win in blowout fashion 112 - 88. Classic market over reaction as even the opening line covers.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Milwaukee Bucks

At the time that Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert were questionable for tonight's game, the line was sitting at Timberwolves +3.5. Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert announced IN - line moves to Timberwolves +2

  • Pick - Bucks -2

  • Result - WIN

  • Bucks win and cover any number 115 - 102. Another market over reaction for tonight.

The findings for tonight's NBA games where the betting strategy was in effect saw a winning record of 3-1. As we can see, the market has over reacted today with the news of key players injuries which made no difference in the outcome when the market reacted to the news. This strategy will be in effect during any NBA game where a key player is truly questionable on game day, followed by a market move as soon as the injury news breaks. No looking at stats, data, or public or sharp sides. Simply fading the market over reaction to injury news will be strategy we continue to test and deploy. Out of the four games in which we used the strategy today, there was 75% win rate.


Season Record: 5 - 4 - 1

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