NBA Betting Strategy 11.2.22

Updated: Nov 3

There is an interesting look going on that I've been noticing since last year in the NBA and want to give a bit of insight on it. Typically we see that star players in the NBA are very valuable to the market and can cause a dramatic line movement when either announced that they are in or out for the game. Usually what happens at the time of news, is that the oddsmakers will lock the game as they make their adjustment which is anywhere from half a point to a whole two points usually depending on the player. Today will be a great example to track all of the action with injuries going on as we look to provide a winning strategy for betting the NBA. You have to understand that these players are the best of the best and any given night, a players number can be called to step up. Below is the list of key injuries for the day and the line movement and scores will be updated throughout the night here as well as my twitter page. Let's dig in!


Published on November 2, 2022. 5:50pm CST

 
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Washington Wizards

At the time that Joel Embiid was questionable for tonight's game, the line was sitting at 76ers -6.5. Joel Embiid announced OUT - line moves to 76ers -5.5.

  • Pick - 76ers -5.5

  • Result - LOSS

  • Wizards win outright 121 - 111 and cover any number as an underdog.

Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings

At the time there was no indication of Butler being out for tonight's game, and the line was sitting at Heat -6. Jimmy Butler announced OUT - line moves to Heat -4.

  • Pick - Heat -4

  • Result - LOSS

  • Kings lose 110 - 107 but cover both the +6 and the +4 number

Chicago Bulls vs. Charlotte Hornets

At the time that Zach LaVine was questionable for tonight's game, the line was sitting at Bulls -5. Zach LaVine announced IN - line moves to Bulls -6

  • Pick - Hornets +6

  • Result - LOSS

  • Hornets lose big 106 - 88 and do not cover either number

San Antonio Spurs vs. Toronto Raptors

At time time that Fred VanVleet was questionable for tonight's game, the line was sitting at Raptors -7.5. Fred VanVleet announced OUT - line moves to Raptors -6.5

  • Pick - Raptors -6.5

  • Result - WIN

  • Raptors win in blowout fashion 143 - 100 and cover any number

Portland Trailblazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies

At the time that Desmond Bane was questionable for tonight's game, the line was sitting at Grizzlies -5. Desmond Bane announced IN - line moves to Grizzlies -5.5

  • Pick - Blazers +5.5

  • Result - WIN

  • Grizzlies win 111 - 106, so if you went against the market correction with the injury news, you end with a WIN rather than a PUSH

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans

At the time that Anthony Davis was questionable for tonight's game, the line was sitting at Pelicans -3. Anthony Davis announced IN - line moves to Pelicans -2

  • Pick - Pelicans -2

  • Result - LOSS

  • Lakers win outright as home underdogs 120 - 117 and cover both numbers


What we can conclude is that there are areas where the price change and market move to injury news does not matter at all, while in few cases, it does make a difference in turning a bet from a loss or push to a win. These findings for these Tuesday games conclude that in 83% of the games, the line movement did not matter.


Results: 2-3-1

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